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Prediction for CME (2026-02-25T07:38:00-CME-002)

CME Observed Time: 2026-02-25T07:38Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44830/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen only in STEREO A COR2 coronagraph to the E. It is covered by a data gap in SOHO LASCO imagery and is not seen in GOES CCOR-1 imagery. Its source is likely the C2.6 flare peaking at 2026-02-25T06:56Z (S08W27), with an associated minor-size eruption seen in SDO AIA 193/304 as brightening/dimming and post-eruptive arcades. There is also a type II radio emission associated with this event.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-28T19:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 25/1601UT
Radial velocity (km/s): 411
Longitude (deg): 0E
Latitude (deg): 7S
Half-angular width (deg): 23

Notes:

Lead Time: 41.75 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2026-02-27T01:15Z

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